Support for the Merger

“That’s why I believe this one… makes too much sense for the American people, which is what we really care about.”

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“Never has the company’s purpose of feeding the human spirit and uplifting communities been more alive than at that King Soopers in Boulder… This is the stuff that great companies are made of, and it’s one of four key reasons that Kroger is poised to sustain its momentum as America’s top grocer, driving profitable sales growth and providing a seamless shopping experience.”

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"This deal could provide some food pricing relief for consumers, With Aldi, Lidl and other discount grocers coming in, this positions Kroger to drive the market forward."

"KR’s price investments have driven its gross margin down by over 400 bps in the last 20 years, but yielded an estimated high-single digit price gap to ACI. We estimate that ACI’s capex/store has trailed KR by 30% on average over the last 15 years. We believe KR will look to bring the acquired ACI stores up to the standards of the core business over time given its historical success."

"… given KR’s more aggressive focus on price gaps, we would expect some level of future price investment."

"Specifically, we see opportunities for KR to help improve ACI’s business through better pricing, further improving loyalty/usage of data, and operating a bit more centralized without losing local advantages. And there are likely some ways that ACI can help KR as well, such as in fresh categories."

"The national reach is unquestionable - it’s exciting for both growing and mature brands to scale distribution via fewer touch-points, and have the potential to get products on more shelves, in more stores, much more efficiently. As leaders in data-driven and digital business models, if Albertsons and Kroger are able to merge the best of their joint capabilities, it’ll be great for retail."

"A deal if completed at a reasonable price makes strategic sense...Albertsons will strengthen Kroger’s presence west of the Mississippi River. More importantly, Albertsons will increase scale and operating leverage, which provides more tools to employ to cope with inflationary headwinds."

“Theatrics aside, there is really no compelling business reason to block the merger. Yes, The Kroger Co. and Albertsons are big chains but the grocery industry itself remains fragmented. Consumers enjoy a vast array of choices, whether mega retailers Walmart Stores Inc. and Amazon Inc, regional players like H.E.B. and Schnucks, and even non-traditional players like dollar stores.”

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“Supermarkets and smaller-format grocers accounted for about 37% of Americans’ total food spending in 1997. As of 2022 that was down to about a quarter of the total, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.”

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“...the grocery industry itself remains fragmented. Consumers enjoy a vast array of choices, whether mega retailers Walmart Stores Inc.  and Amazon Inc. regional players like H.E.B. and Schnucks, and even non-traditional players like dollar stores.

And what more, traditional supermarket chains have been rapidly losing ground to the rest of the pack, large and small competitors.

From 2017 to 2022, food retailers saw their share of total grocery market sales slip to 66.6% of sales from 69.7%, according to a new report by Coresight Research, while major mass merchandisers (Walmart, Target Corporation) increased their share to 19.0% of sales from 18.4%.

Major discount and dollar stores inched up from 3.1% to 3.4% of sales. Major warehouse clubs like Costco Wholesale Corporation saw the greatest jump in sales share, moving to 10.9% from 8.7%.”

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“Kroger’s current business model is founded on four pillars: fresh, private brands, personalization and seamless (omnichannel). By delivering on these four pillars, the company continues to churn out profitable sales growth at a time when the grocery market is oversaturated, hypercompetitive and an exceedingly expensive industry in which to operate.”

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“I think they do have really good arguments to make, and they seem well-prepared to make them. They understand completely the environment they’re working in. They understand they’ll probably have to put together a package of divestitures to overcome concerns in some markets…It has sounded in some comments that they’re also committed not to use labor redundancies as a cost-savings mechanism, and they are putting forward an investment plan that should be attractive as well…So, they have good things going for them and they seem to be patient here too. They’re giving themselves a lot of time before their anticipated closing date – well over a year.”

"The outrage over the payout and the deal is overblown: Albertsons and Kroger are in an industry with razor-thin margins. Combining would help them scale up and compete with well-capitalized e-commerce rivals. In any case, the chains' combined grocery market share would fall short of that of Walmart, which has stores within 10 miles of 90% of the U.S. population and is unlikely to give up its everyday-low-prices positioning."

"A national footprint may be exactly what they need to compete with Walmart in the future. They’re not thinking just a couple years ahead. They’re thinking far ahead about how you compete with the behemoths."

"We think the deal makes strategic sense…KR over-indexes to the Midwest, while ACI is much more concentrated in the West and Southwest."

"…we believe the combination could strengthen KR’s ability to compete with other large players and drive significant L-T earnings/cash flow accretion.

We believe a KR/ACI combination could better compete with WMT, AMZN, and TGT at a national level."

"We believe this deal would result in a more competitive national player… Albertsons Northeast locations have virtually no overlap."

"Merging with Albertsons will better position Kroger to compete with Walmart and even Amazon on a national scale."

"…the national food and grocery market is still pretty fragmented, with Walmart as the largest player, with about 17 percent of the market. It doesn't create a sort of behemoth that is crowding everyone out of the market.

From a broader national perspective, a combined Kroger and Albertsons does not pose any major threat to the competitive dynamics of the market."

"…allowing Kroger and Albertsons to merge will likely mean a more, not less, competitive market in the long run…Consumers deserve better when it’s a matter of putting food on the table."

"The market for groceries is the latest to grab headlines for what is both normal and heathy: dynamic responses to an evolving economic landscape. Recession, inflation, and new consumer patterns with online ordering and home delivery means suppliers must adapt or stagnate. How companies configure themselves is just one form of adaptation and we should cheer the experimentation and ward off political opportunism that would control or direct how private capital reacts to a changing world."